# Table 2: Allocation Puzzle — Does Demographics Resolve It?

| Model | N | R² | Growth β | Growth p | Z₁ β | Z₁ p |
|-------|---|-----|----------|----------|-------|------|
| M1: Baseline Puzzle | 4324 | 0.1866 | 0.2289 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M2: + Demographics | 4324 | 0.1876 | 0.2259 | 0.0000 | -0.7528 | 0.9550 |
| M3: + OADR | 4324 | 0.1880 | 0.2250 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M4a: Early Transition | 1601 | 0.1533 | 0.3627 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M4b: Mid Transition | 1395 | 0.2018 | -0.0597 | 0.1552 |  |  |
| M4c: Late Transition | 1328 | 0.0890 | -0.1068 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M5: Growth Residual | 4324 | 0.1860 | 0.2261 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M6a: Growth Only | 6231 | -0.0040 | 0.2013 | 0.0000 |  |  |
| M6b: Demographics Only | 6281 | 0.0189 |  |  | 14.5171 | 0.3628 |
| M6c: Both | 6231 | 0.0165 | 0.2020 | 0.0000 | 18.0504 | 0.2684 |
| M7a: Bilateral (no demo) | 100837 | 0.2082 | 0.0012 | 0.1141 |  |  |
| M7b: Bilateral (+ demo) | 100837 | 0.2100 | 0.0012 | 0.1178 |  |  |

